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[OC] 5 breakout seasons you might have missed this year
This post, then, will be talking about some breakouts around the league that you might have missed this season, coming from players on less talked-about teams, or simply improved aspects of certain players' games that may have flown under the radar for whatever reason.
1: Jonathan Isaac, defensive savant
Jonathan Isaac broke out as an early Defensive Player of the Year-candidate for the Orlando Magic this season - only an unfortunate season-ending left knee injury 32 games in stopped him from achieving a well-deserved All-Defensive spot this year.
While Isaac's gaudy per-game averages (7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 2.4 blocks) are useful shorthand, they actually underplays his overall impact because of how truly unicorn-ish and all-encompassing his defensive profile is.
- Paint defense
- Man defense
- Team defense
- Some of his few defensive weaknesses:
- Orlando's best and most important defender:
With Isaac on the court, the Orlando Magic's defensive rating jumps by a whopping 4.5 points to an excellent 106.5 DRTG (-3.9 rDRTG), which would rank as the 4th-best defense in the league over a full season, significantly higher than the 9th place (109.0 DRTG) the Magic ended up at at the time of the NBA's suspension.
- Advanced metrics:
- So what's next for Isaac?
"I thought they were going to call it, I thought they were going to call it goaltending,’’ said a relieved Isaac after his Magic notched their fourth straight victory – this one a gritty 93-87 defeat of Cleveland. "I just tried to get (Thompson’s hook shot) at its highest point, and they gave it to me. I think the refs are starting to let me slide a little bit and I like it.’’It probably won't be very long before Isaac will be able to run rampant as a full-blown terror on the defensive end, and combined with his decent ancillary offensive numbers as a tertiary scorer / potential floor-spacer (12.0 PPG, 2.8 3PA, 33 3P%), Jonathan is already a truly indispensable part of the Magic rotation for the foreseeable future.
(Bonus clip that perhaps summarises the entirety of Isaac's versatile skillset: His near-5x5 performance in a 1-point loss vs the Dallas Mavericks' historic league-leading offense on November 6, putting up 13/10/5/6/4 while tormenting Porzingis all night long (10 pts, 2 TOVs, 29 FG%) and holding Luka and KP to a combined 37 points on 35 shots (47.5 TS%) and 8 turnovers.)
2: Christian Wood, the NBA's newest unicorn
- "Sooo.. who is Wood, and why should we care?"
He's been remarkably consistent as well, scoring fewer than 17 points only once during this stretch, and showing up against a variety of good teams - 3 of his final 4 games were against stout opposition, and he rose to the challenge admirably, with outputs of 29/9/3 on 91 TS% vs OKC, 30/11/2 on 56 TS% vs the Jazz and reigning DPOY Gobert, and a career-high 32/7/2/3/2 on 81 TS% v.s. Philly.
- "He's on a bad team though, and Detroit lost all but one of those 13 games. Aren't these just empty numbers?"
For one thing, Wood is an advanced stats darling - he ranks in the top-20 to 30 range in most box- and non-box metrics: +4.5 RAPTOR (18th), +3.1 BPM (BBRef) (27th), 0.184 WS/48 (24th), +2.98 PIPM (26th), +2.82 RPM (ESPN) (22nd), +2.09 RAPM (20th).
For another, the Pistons are a whopping +10.9 points better with Wood on the court, with their defensive rating improving by +3 and their offensive rating getting a ridiculous +8 boost.
- "So, what makes him so effective?"
When he plays the 5, he is an elite roll-man in the PnR (97th percentile); his potent roll-gravity often distracts defending bigs to get teammates easier looks at the rim. His athleticism and feathery touch allow him to finish at an elite rate at the rim (77 FG% in restricted area), either skying for lobs or shedding defenders with power and speed.
Wood is very aggressive in the short roll too, bullying defenders with unflashy but effective bumps, pivots, fakes, and his leaping ability, not shying away from contact either, affording him a healthy free-throw rate overall (6 FTA/game as starter, 76 FT%).
Wood is also a highly capable offensive rebounder (3.2 ORB/game in final 13 games, top 20 in ORB%), adept at following up on both teammate misses and his own.
Of course, Wood is also a remarkable shooter for his position (40 3P% on 4.2 3pa/game in final 13 games), with a quick and high release off-the-catch that's unbothered by all but the longest of perimeter defenders, opening up driving lanes for teammates with his gravity. "Wood is the rare stretch-4 who doubles as a rim-running 5", allowing coaches a high level of versatility when designing offensive sets. Wood possesses a smooth dribble, too, which lets him attack closeouts and slash to the basket.
- "What about on defense, though?"
- "Does he suck at anything?"
Wood is also a subpar playmaker - he had a 2.0/2.3 assist-to-turnover ratio in his final 13 games. He can make basic reads out of double-teams, but has yet to truly weaponise his own scoring threat to get teammates easier looks on a more consistent basis.
Defensively, his awareness as a team defender has room for improvement, and his motor can be sloppy (seen in some mediocre box-outs or close-outs). He also has trouble against heftier post players, and some speedy guards can blow by him.
Finally, Small Sample Size alert! Some regression is very likely expected for Wood's gaudy shooting numbers once more teams learn more about his abilities and begin to throw more defenders (and better defenders) on him.
- "So what's the future like for Christian?"
Wood is trusting his teammates more on both sides of the ball. He’s not forcing things on offense... Wood is scoring by giving the ball up and trusting it will come back to him when he’s open instead of constantly hunting for his own shot.Wood doesn't demand touches and is highly efficient in his role, something that will let him scale well on good offenses, something that bodes well for his future as a Piston but also makes him an attractive addition for a playoff side - he's an unrestricted free-agent this summer. If he carries or builds upon this level of production into next season, he'll easily be a Most Improved Player contender with All-Star potential.
- "Hmm, I'm actually kinda interested in knowing more about him!"
-Coach Daniel on YouTube: Why Christian Wood Is Genuinely A Terrific Player
-Jonathan Tjarks, The Ringer: Get Used to Hearing Christian Wood’s Name
3: Jaren Jackson Jr, one of the best volume-shooters in the league
- "Surely the section title is clickbait or hyperbole, though, right? He's just a big, after all, he can't be that good"
Here are all 135 3-pointers he's made this season, just to get an idea of how he shoots these, and here's him draining 9 threes on the league-leading Bucks' defense en route to a career-high 43 points.
- "So does he just stand in the corner and wait for Ja to feed him?"
To quote some more from this excellent SB Nation breakdown of Jaren Jackson Jr's versatile game by Mike Prada:
The fact that Jackson can take and make so many different kinds of threes enables the Grizzlies to deploy him in so many different spots on the court. He has no obvious sweet spot, which means there’s rarely a worry he’ll catch the ball somewhere he doesn’t belong. He can toggle between playmaker, primary scorer, screener, and floor spacer, depending on what the Grizzlies need at that particular moment.Pascal Siakam. His post scoring is well below-average (26th percentile), his ISO scoring is decent (65th percentile), and his shooting in the non-restricted area of the paint (floaters and such) isn't anything to write home about (39.5 FG%). Interestingly, he rarely takes midrange shots, attempting a James Harden-esque 16 midrange attempts over the entire season.
Better yet, he can do all four within the same play, which ensures Memphis’ sets always have secondary options. A pick-and-pop that the defense covers effectively can quickly swing into a dribble handoff, post-up, or second-side screening action, and it’s difficult for the defense to peg exactly where Jackson fits in to those sequences. In an instant, he’s flipped from the big man screener that gets a guard open into the primary option on a flare screen to get him a three.
And if that shot isn’t there, he can quickly flow back into being a screener for a guard curling up from the corner.
Or — and this is spicy — he can invert the traditional big/guard setup and act as the ball-handler immediately.
Defensively-speaking, Jaren is very versatile and has incredible length, athleticism, footwork, and timing, able to switch onto bigs and guards alike with equal ease and possessing preternatural defensive instincts as a help defender. However, he is still some way from fulfilling his All-Defensive, even DPOY potential, as he's haunted by persistent fouling issues - he's averaged 5.2 fouls/36 in each of his first 2 seasons. His rebounding rate is anemic for a player his size, too (3.7 D-Rebs/game) - part of this might be due to him playing out on the perimeter a lot, part of it might just be due to his rebounding being naturally poor. (In case you were wondering, JJJ's lack of rebounding isn't a Steven Adams issue because he's just boxing people out all the time, either - he's 109th in the league in defensive-box-outs/game.) His current overall defensive impact, therefore, is quite neutral at the moment - most advanced numbers don't think highly of it. Memphis have the 16th ranked defense in the league, and their defensive rating actually improves with JJJ off the court (some of this might just be noise, or perhaps a case of Grizzlies' backups shining against weaker bench units). In any case, these current defensive shortcomings are something Grizzlies fans will likely gladly live with, considering JJJ's offensive value and the promise of future improvements in his defensive impact once he learns to foul less.
4: Kris Dunn, the modern-era Tony Allen?
First, though, let's get the numbers out of the way:
- Height: 6-3, Weight: 205 lb, Wingspan: 6-10, 51 GP, 24.9 MPG
- 2nd in Steals/game (2.0), 1st in Steal % by a wide margin, 4th in Deflections/game (only player in the top 11 averaging fewer than 25 minutes a night), 8th in Defensive loose-balls recovered/game
- 2nd in Defensive Box Plus Minus (BBRef)
- 5th in Defensive PIPM
- 7th Defensive RAPTOR, which incorporates player tracking data
- 7th in Defensive RAPM / Luck-adjusted RAPM
- 13th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (ESPN)
- Bulls have a 106.4 Defensive Rating (-4.0 rDRTG) with Kris Dunn on the floor, which would rank 4th in the NBA over a full season. The Bulls defense also improves by a massive +6.2 points when Dunn enters the game.
- 67.8 Versatility Index, guarding positions 1-3 at least 19% of the time each, and spending 15% of his possessions guarding PFs and Cs
- Held pick-and-roll ball-handlers to 0.71 points per possession, one of the best marks in the league
- Can guard either the primary or secondary offensive options highly effectively as required
- Opponents shoot 1.5% worse on 3s when Dunn is the closest defender
- "Among those who logged at least 20 minutes per game, Dunn led all players in the percentage of his points that came off a turnover, at a whopping 29.3 percent. It’s reminiscent of prime Tony Allen — who used to live near the top of the league in this category — and more than doubled his production from the previous year."
On the night Kris Dunn suffered a knee injury that will likely end his season, I sat by his locker to chat about defense. Considering no guard in the NBA has been better at it this season, the topic made sense.
We talked about... The dark arts that go into learning his opponent’s specific tendencies:
“A lot of guys who are righties like to go left to be able to get to their jump shot, and a lot of people who are righties like to go downhill to their right side. But if you’re a righty, most likely you like to go left. I just feel like you just have, you know, more in your bag of tricks going left. If you’re a lefty, most of the time they like going right. It’s just how they do it.
I like to break down to see what’s their go-to move. Some people when they come down the court, if they have the ball in their left hand, they’re getting ready to shoot. If they have the ball in their right hand, they’re ready to drive.”
... And player comparisons:
“I feel like Tony Allen, he just fits what I do. He’ll pounce on you. He was strong, physical. I think he could guard 1 through 3, even fours. I feel like I can guard some fours sometimes. I feel like that’s a good comparison because he’s got that dog, he’s got that bloodhound in him.”
Dunn’s season-long defensive impact was, to be frank, spectacular. He thrived in Jim Boylen’s tight-rope-walk of a defensive scheme, torpedoing passing lanes, living in his man’s jersey, and never giving up on a possession.
For most defenders, including Dunn, a majority of his defensive possessions are spent off the ball, and it’s here where his knowledge, instincts, and timing swirl up into a typhoon that the offense then has to navigate.
“He’s an all-defensive defender if I’ve ever seen one, and I’ve seen a few of them,” Boylen said right before the injury. “Paul George, Kawhi Leonard. He’s an All-Defensive guy.”
- Indeed, Kris Dunn should receive some serious consideration for an All-Defensive spot. He may not get it because the Bulls are bad and his offensive role is limited, hence he likely won't be well-known to most voters, but he's clearly been one of the best guard defenders in the league this year, and one of the most impactful defenders in the league, period.
5: Kawhi Leonard, playmaker
See, prior to this season, Kawhi was not actually a very good passer or playmaker.
- A fun and relevant stat- Kawhi only has 10 TOTAL career games (regular season and playoffs combined) with 8 or more assists, and a whopping 7 of them came in the 2019-20 regular season. (source)
This season, though, Kawhi burst out of the gate as a shockingly comfortable and effective passer and playmaker, averaging 8 APG in his first 4 games. Far from his probing, soft, and hesitant passes late in the shot clock to teammates in previous years, this version of the Klaw tries to keep his head up and his offensive options open, always tracking where his teammates are. He consistently hits the Clippers' bigs Zubac and Harrell in the PnR with crisp high-speed bounce-passes, throws no-looks and skip passes to shooters, and even manipulates defenders by freezing them with his eyes before rapidly lasering the ball to open teammates under the rim.
To quote Zach Lowe:
He already has developed chemistry with two very different dance partners in Ivica Zubac and Montrezl Harrell. Zubac is more laborious, and so Leonard navigates with zigzaggy, start-and-stop patience until Zubac rumbles free: clipHis passing leap shows up on film, too, where he rarely looks lost anymore, knowing where his teammates are at all times, but it also shows up in the numbers: easily a career-high 5.0 assists/game (previous high was 3.3 in 2017), 27.0 AST% (previous high 18.9% in 2017).
Harrell can zip to the rim or mirror Leonard's pitter-pat. Harrell also is a master at re-screening at different angles, and Leonard is learning to bob and weave behind him -- and use the threat of a handoff to slice backdoor: clip
The rest of the league should be worried - one of the finest scorers in the game has finally upgraded his passing game to match.
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