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Why $STNG Isn't A Meme And Will Actually Bring In Your 10 Banger
submitted by TimThyTurtle to wallstreetbets
IntroI am sure most of us are already aware but rates for storing crude oil on tankeres recently skyrocketed from their $25,000 a day average rate in 2019 to securing some vessels at $250,000 a day for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier).
After the fall out of negative oil, storage rates for tankers has soared over 200% and companies are making substantial amounts of money while currently trading below their NAV (Net Asset Value). This creates an opportunity in purchasing shares of highly undervalued tanker companies such as Scorpio Tankers (STNG) to potentially see over 100% returns within the next year.
Oil Glut OverviewThere are many speculators who look to invest in commodities without having to take physical ownership of whatever they are trading, so they look to the futures market. When trading futures, investors have to understand that it is a binding contract between the buyer and seller legally binding the buyer to take physical possession of 1,000 barrels of oil by expiration date per contract. Normally, you can just sell to another buyer before expiration date so you don’t have to take physical possession. The issue arose when there were no more buyers and there were only speculators left holding oil contracts, forcing them to get rid of the contracts no matter the cost, hence negative oil.
Tanker Rates:In an interview with Robert Bugbee, President of Scorpio Tankers,
If an MR can get $30,000 per day on a spot voyage, it covers its costs for a year… If an LR2 gets $150,000 or $160,000 per day, it’s the same… you could lay the ship up, earn zero for the next ten months, and still make a profit on the ship. (Robert Bugbee, President of Scorpio Tankers)
During April, LR2 spot rates were skyrocketing to over $140,000 a day on some of these voyages. Of course these rates are cyclical and will not hold, that being said even if rates went to $0 by mid summer, the rates for Q2 have been so high that it'd still be one of their highest revenue years in their recent history.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Unfortunately, rates are already coming down to about $55,000 for an LR2 but we have to keep in mind that 2019 YTD average was $14,000, we are still making over 300% more than 2019. To put this into perspective, Scorpio estimated if TCE rates can maintain over $40,000 then each share would be producing about $37 when $STNG is currently trading at $16.86.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Scorpio Tankers:It is very important to point out that Scorpio is in the business of the product market (AKA Refined or clean).
Source: Scorpio Tankers
They currently possess not only the largest fleet in the industry but also the largest clean tanker fleet which will become very important in the coming years.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Scorpio Tankers currently command the biggest, most competitive, and youngest fleet in the whole market and on top of all of that, their fleet is one of the largest scrubber invested fleets. The scrubbers allow for a significant cash flow benefit driven by the fuel savings given the current MGO-HSFO price spread.
As their non scrubber competitors are forced to switch their fuel to the more expensive VLSFO, STNG can continue to burn the less expensive HSFO and can see an annual cash flow benefit of over $100 million dollars.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Now that you have an understanding of Scorpio's fleet, lets take a look back at the fleet chart. If you take a quick look at the chart we can see the crude market is very crowded while the product market only has a handful of competitors. The key aspect the market is missing here is basic supply and demand, the demand for refined products and exports have been growing while the supply of tankers exporting refined products is decreasing.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Not only is demand growing but so is production, specifically Saudi Arabian production. Saudi Arabia was known for exporting exclusively crude oil and ironically had to import it's refined products until their recent refinery developments. Their production has been ramping up tremendously and have been seeing exports grow every year since 2013.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
There is also incredible regional displacements and imbalances of refined products which will require product exports further increasing demand and rates. The storage glut may have reached it's peak but that still does not change the fact that the unwinding of the storage will not be a swift process. In order to get back to the storage levels before the crisis we would have to be burning more than we did in 2019 and that is without the lack of flights, manufacturing, gasoline purchases, etc.
Supply and OrderbookTo understand the falling supply levels, you need to understand the difference between crude and product. Crude oil is very difficult to contaminate and has neglible effects when it is compared to products. Products are your vegatable oils, diesels, gasolines, and things with precise measurements and quality control so product tankers are coated with a special material that allows for easier cleaning and reduces contamination. An issue arises when the coating starts to dissolve and become less effective and usually normal tankers are scrapped after 25 years, but due to the nature of the product market and risk many key clients only employ vessels 15 years or younger.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
According to the 2020 orderbook, new vessels are at their all time lows. Until 2018, the number of vessels aging out at 15 years old had never exceeded new deliveries for a given year and the gap continues to widen as deliveries become more scarce.
Companies must also consider IMO 2030/2050 when deciding whether or not to order more tankers. With new unknown regulations coming in the next decade, there is a possibility any newly purchased ships may become obsolete depending on what regulations are announced. Companies must look to be more conservative until details start to become more clear, further widening the supply and demand gap.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
It really is a simple fact of supply and demand, more product tankers are starting to come off the market than new ones coming in and demand is steadily increasing despite the shrinking supply.
FundamentalsSource: Scorpio Tankers
STNG is currently trading at $17.11 as of May 18th, 2020 and have a market cap of about 1B dollars. In the first quarter of 2020, they made $254M which is about 1/4 of their market cap in one quarter. This also doesn’t include the increase of revenue coming Q2 due to the rates or LR2, LR1 and MRs not rising till April.
STNG currently has a NAV of $34.52 providing a discount of about 56% with its current trading price of $17.11. They are currently sitting on $5.26B worth of assets for a company with a market cap of only $1B and are currently using a large portion of their free cash flow to pay down significant portions of their debt.
CEO Call Options
Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE:STNG) (“Scorpio Tankers,” or the “Company”) announced that the President of the Company, Robert Bugbee, has purchased call options on 315,100 common shares (or 3,151 call option contracts) of the Company with strike price of $15.00 and an expiration of January 2021 for the consideration of $1,963,291.” (Source: Scorpio Tankers).Bugbee made this trade on March 11th when STNG was trading at $15 most likely costing him about $6.23 per contract. That same trade today would cost about $6.65 per contract and assuming by expiration date STNG is somewhere near it’s current NAV we would see above 150% returns. Keep in mind this is purely NAV not accounting future earnings.
$250 Million Securities Repurchase ProgramIn 2015, STNG established a program where they had the ability to buyback shares up to $250 million and they still have the ability to purchase up to $121.6 million worth of its securities. With the recent cash flow increase, from their refinancing and rate spikes, they are well positioned to initiate several large buyback purchases within the year.
MONACO, May 12, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Scorpio Tankers, Inc. (NYSE: STNG) (the “Company”) announced today that Scorpio Services Holding Limited (“SSH”), a related party, has purchased 100,000 common shares of the Company at an average price of $17.36 per share in the open market. The Company currently has 58,672,080 common shares outstanding, of which the Scorpio Group of companies, including SSH, owns 2,657,839 or 4.5%.They have already used a small portion of that power and are expected to continue to use it the longer we stay under NAV. Keep in mind you can get in at a better price right now than the $17.36 paid.
Source: Scorpio Tankers
Under these new refinancing agreements, STNG’s Q3 2020 and Q1 2021 debt obligations have been substantially reduced freeing up millions in capital, combined with their $204.2 million unrestricted cash balance this should guarantee their short-medium term survivability.
Institutional Purchases and Options Volume -Jefferies Investment Advisers LLC increased their holdings by 1.2 million shares and many other funds are increasing their holdings over 100%+. Smart money is starting to pile in while retail is starting to pile out as the stock has been getting hammered over and over in the short term. Smart money is shaking small money away so they can get in cheap and ride this baby to the next super cycle.
The open interest on $STNG 1/15/2021 is 2.3 million most of which is on the $30 and $35 strike price, coincidentally right about NAV. By purchasing a $30 strike for January 2021 at about $2.5, if we see STNG at $40 anytime before expiration thats an easy 4x with 8 months worth of theta to exit.
ConclusionThere are a lot of words and you probably skipped all of them
$STNG 1/15/2021 $30 and $35 high risk
$STNG 1/15/2021 $15 medium risk
$STNG shares, risk free
Why You Should DeGoogle & Intro DeGoogling Techniques
If you're on the new reddit, please check out our rules in the sidebar or use the following link https://old.reddit.com/degoogle/about/rules/
Ever seen some information on the web where you thought.. "That should not be public, that shouldn't be visible. How do they know that?!" That's what we're concerned with, we're /DeGoogle and want to keep personal information just that.. Personal. Over the years many companies have proven to take more data on users than necessary and in turn save and potentially leak that data. Many times it is 'unintentional', but once the leak happens, personal data is out there for the world wide web to access. Data breaches happen quite often Many breaches happen behind closed doors and might never be released to the public, here is a list of over 40 known breaches of 2020. That list includes Tmobile, Facebook, Nintendo, GoDaddy, Zoom, Microsoft, health care providers, pharmacies and more.
Why should I care?Do you act the same in public vs in private?
Once your data is out there, you no longer have control over it. It was said best during this Ted Talk by Glenn Greenwald - Why Privacy Matters - Peertube Link Secondary Peertube Link
From Glenn Greenwald's Ted Talk, "You're giving up your rights. Your saying hey, 'I don't think I'm going to need them so I'm just going to trust that, Let's get rid of them it doesn't matter. These guys are going to do the right thing'. Your rights matter because you never know when your going to need them.
"People should be able to pick up the phone and call their family. People should be able to send a text message to their loved one. People should be able to buy a book online, they should be able to travel by train, they should be able to buy an airline ticket without wondering how these events are going to look.. To an agent of the government, possibly not even your government. Years in the future, how they're going to be misinterpreted and what they're going to think your intentions. We have a right to privacy."
Google: a walk down privacy lane
Ted Talk - Edward Snowden, Here's how we take back the internet
To start, google is one of the digital advertising companies. PDF Link to a study done on: Google Data Collection by Professor Douglas C. Schmidt
Here are Richard Stallman's reasons not to use Google
A few highlights are
Nonfree Software Required, Closed Source. What's going on behind the scenes? Where do they send our data, what else do they use it for?
Surveillance. Google is everywhere on the web. Ever get annoyed by clicking on pictures of buses, signs, crosswalks, etc in those ReCaptchas? That's helping Google's AI learn. They track mouse movements, typing, response time, and ping your captcha box to determine your location.Source1, Source 2, Source 3, Source 4, Source 5
Google also records any voice data given by users from Google Voice to text, nest, Google Home and many others. It was discovered that Google's nest listens. If you were logged in, you can find all recordings from voice to text here
Just take a look at the following links to see what type of data Google may have and store about you;Note: in Google Takeout you will notice they still saved any long supposedly deleted emails from your account.
Google is not the only one doing such things. Amazon, Facebook, Verizon, PayPal, Microsoft and many other corporations do very similar.
Article - My phone is spying on me, so I decided to spy on it
Ted Talks - Finn Myrstad, How Tech Companies Deceive you into giving up your data and privacy Peertube Link
Just a few of previous incidents:
In 2019 by October, there were over 104 data breaches
One Of The Biggest Leaks Ever Exposes Data On 1.2 Billion People
Google and Mastercard Cut a Secret Ad Deal to Track Retail Sales Alt: Source
MasterCard is mining Facebook users' data to get consumer behaviour information it can sell to banks
Wikileaks dump shows CIA could turn smart TVs into listening devices
Samsungs warning our smart tvs record your living room chatter
Lawsuit against 4 Major wireless carriers on selling location data
Smart TV Data Collection
Amazon Alexa - Conversations shared
Verizon Pays $1.4M for selling storing and selling customers' info
6 Million Verizon Customers' Info ''Leaked''
Facebook: Your Personal Info for Sale
Facebook - Some of the data they collect and sell
Smartphone apps Requesting unneeded permissions for data collection
Amazon accused of secretly recording kids with Echo Dot speakers
An Amazon employee might have listened to your Alexa recording
Google admits its new smart speaker was eavesdropping on users
PayPal reveals it shares customers' data with more than 600 companies
How PayPal Shares your data
How CloudFlare and ReCaptcha are ruining the net, and what to do
Facebook Quizzes: Sharing Your Private Data
Amazon Ring stores your doorbell and home video feeds unencrypted and grants broad "unfettered" access to them
Vizio admins modern tv sets are cheaper because they're spying on you
Thanks to Facebook, Your Cellphone Company Is Watching You More Closely Than Ever
Jeremy was fired for refusing fingerprinting at work. His case led to an 'extraordinary' unfair dismissal ruling
Millions of Instagram influencers had their contact data scraped and exposed
Windows 10 is possibly the worst spyware ever made
You still can’t turn off Windows 10’s built-in spyware
Windows is spyware
Microsoft's Software is Malware
"But why should I care? Why do I need to do anything? I'm happy with X company. I don't care if they release my data."
Why you should care about and defend your privacy
Tech Crunch - Stop saying, ‘We take your privacy and security seriously’
Article - Read this if you have nothing to hide
Compared to the days before the internet, these days everything is readily available. Such as your email addresses, phone numbers, addresses, family & relatives, and much more. How far is far enough?
Majority of these large corporations do not care about users' privacy. Since they don't, there is only one person that can make the change. You are your own data controller.
How to get StartedFirst determine your threat model, or how far you want to dive. It's okay to change this goal at a later time if you feel you want to go further into repalcements or go lighter if you realize there's that one tool that can't yet be replaced. Everyone will have their own pace, objectives and goals in mind. So while we see some extremists here zero google products, we will see the opposite side of the spectrum with users needing to keep a few google applications. Please be nice to users on all levels and a reminder to all degooglers, that degoogling even a little bit is better than nothing.
After determine how far you want to take this you can look into the next application that applies to you;
Search EnginesOne of the best ways to starting freeing yourself is to choose a more user respecting search engine. A few options out there include https://duckduckgo.com, https://www.startpage.com/, https://www.qwant.com/, https://metager.de/en, and https://searx.me/. Please visit our wiki for further details. By using an alternative search engine, you're already loosing the grip google has on you as a user and disallowing google to gain that much more data on you.
BrowsersAnother fantastic step is to change browsers if your using chrome as it is run and owned by google. If you don't want to step too far away from chrome, you may want to look into ungoogled chromium, icecat, or (brave*)[https://brave.com/]. Side note for brave: While they have good built in ad blocking, tracker protection, and give users a chrome like feel, they have been discovered to some minor shady activity. Source 1, Source 2. Since discovery, it is said they have fixed this practice and no longer add affiliate links. However they are not to be fully trusted and should be watched closely, the main reason we mention brave is because some folks still consider a good stepping stone as out of the box it has better tracking protections than firefox.
The best browser you can switch to is firefox. To get it privacy oriented, it will involve some add-on installations and about:config page changes. A few basic add-ons that are good to start with are; firefox multi-account containers, invidious redirect, terms of service; didn't read, and ublock origin. Some more advanced add-ons like noscript or umatrix really give good insight of how much google and facebook tracking scripts are really out there on the web. We recommend checking https://privacytools.io or /privacytoolsio for the latest firefox recommendations. The reason firefox is the most recommended as it is the most configurable and customizable browser option at this point.
Lately we have seen tor recommended more than usual. Please only use tor if you're browsing .onion webpages or if you have a need for the tor network on clearnet. Using tor for everything, ie when it's not essential slows down the tor network for all users. So please don't recommend tor in place of using a VPN and be kind to others, use the proper service for the proper job.
Browser AddonsAbove we went over a few different browser add-ons, this section gives a brief summary of what they do and how they may help us.
Firefox Multi-Account Containers lets you keep parts of your online life separated into color-coded tabs that preserve your privacy. Cookies are separated by container, allowing you to use the web with multiple identities or accounts simultaneously.
Invidous redirect - redirects all YouTube links to Invidous. Previously hooktube-redirect, but changed since hooktube is no longer allowed to use the YouTube API, apparently. Invidious is an alternative front-end to YouTube without ads and doesn't require a Google account to save subscriptions
Terms of Service; Didn't Read - This extension informs you instantly of your rights online by showing an unintrusive icon in the toolbar. You can click on this icon to get summaries from the Terms of Service; Didn't Read initiative.
Ublock origin - an efficient wide-spectrum content blocker. Easy on CPU and memory.
Noscript (advanced) - The best security you can get in a web browser! Allow potentially malicious web content to run only from sites you trust. Protect yourself against XSS other web security exploits.
Umatrix (advanced) - Point & click to forbid/allow any class of requests made by your browser. Use it to block scripts, iframes, ads, facebook, google, etc.
Two of the most recommended email providers in the privacy community are protonmail /protonmail and tutanota /tutanota. They both offer free plans as well as upgraded paid plans with additional features.
A few other great alternatives include https://mailbox.org, https://posteo.de/, https://disroot.org/en/services/email, https://startmail.com/, and https://fastmail.com. You may need to test a few to find which provider works best for your usage.
Video Sharing PlatformThis may be one of the hardest for most folks. Youtube has been around many years, has amassed a huge library of content and in turn has the largest amount of users of any video sharing service. The best alternative would be to switch into a federated video sharing platform such as peertube. If you still need that youtube content, you can easily import the video into most peertube instances with just the url, use newpipe on android or use invidios on desktop. Both newpipe and invidous retrieve content from google video servers without you having to deal with their UI, tracking, or the need of a google account.
Wrap upWe've talked about a few of the alternatives in browsers, add-ons, email providers, and search engines. But there is much more information out there. You can replace your google maps/waze, cloud storage, note taking apps, fitness trackers, domain registrars, hardware, operating system, google forms, recaptcha, google photos and much more. All of those have google run projects which we should try our best to use an alternative when feasible.
While this guide can be a great starting point, it is not meant to be the end all be all, things change constantly or your preferences may differ from the recommendations above. We have the entire /degoogle sub for more research! There's also our wiki, using reddit's search function or if you didn't find your question asked, you can create your own post. Please be sure to check all rules first to ensure your post has all required information. The more the information in your post, the more other degooglers can help you so be sure to give a descriptive title.
Happy DeGoogling to all!
I wanted to also say a quick thank you to all on the moderation team for keeping our sub helpful, clean, and informative IHAVESEEN PiratusInteruptus thisdodobird. And a special thanks to CDr0m for all his hard work in recent days on the style sheets, revamps and other back-end tasks for /DeGoogle & /Corpfree
Additional helpful resources:The Complete Privacy and Security Podcast
https://youtube.tracking.exposed/ & https://facebook.tracking.exposed/
/pihole & https://pi-hole.net - useful for blocking Google and other conglomerate/unwanted domains
An easy way to switch from Google to Nextcloud
F Droid App Store