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Rowdies Home Attendance Thread - Game 15 vs. Bethlehem Steel FC [9/30]
Wednesday brings the home regular season finale. Last year we drew 7,641 for that game - we certainly won't top it for a Wednesday game, but here are two numbers to watch. We need 5,010 in order to be able to top last season's average and make it 6 years in a row of consecutive growth (even if it's just barely over breakeven). We would need 6,946 in order to average over 6,000 for the season.
Ticket sales look decent at this point, but I'm going to guess we'll land more likely in the 5k range for this one.
% Cml Growth: Year-over-year running season total growth (cumulative)
*Average-to-date, not all teams have played comp home games
TEAM AVERAGES (YTD)
*Missing information, not all games reported as of yet
Pittsburgh Pirates - 2023 NL Central Champions, an OOTP simulation
-ARI: Starling Marte
-PIT: Daulton Varsho, Wilderd Patino, Luis Frias
Justification/Results: I, personally, would prefer a trade that was headlined by Kristian Robinson. But in an attempt to be realistic, I opted for Varsho, instead. He was ranked as the #100 prospect on MLB Pipeline which fits the bill for a Marte package. I got my toolsy outfielder in Wilderd Patino and I got a true power pitcher in Frias. Varsho was in the upper minors, knocking on the door whereas Patino/Frias were lottery tickets that I thought were solid gambles. How’d we fair? In 202 games with the Pirates, Varsho was bad. He accounted for 0.3 WAR while hitting a paltry .186 with 11 home runs. I had to pivot away from him because his production was brutal. Frias is middling in Bradenton. He still has a + fastball but he hasn’t developed according to plan. And Patino was abysmal in the Pirates system and ended being traded in 2021 to CWS where he broke out in AAA in 2022 and made it to MLB in 2023.
Marte had 5.9 WAR in the desert, which basically matches all of my current projections for him. He made the 2020 All Star Team and went on to sign a 5/$74.5M deal with the SFG.
I would say it’s pretty clear that Pittsburgh lost this deal.
-SDP: Adam Frazier
-PIT: Tirso Ornelas + Reggie Lawson
Justification/Results: As I scour the internet for speculation on potential Marte deals (in real life), I came across an article written by a SDP fan that said they would be interested in Frazier, as well. That’s the basis of this marriage. Based on SV, Ornelas and Lawson match up rather well.
Frazier went on to have lackluster success in San Diego, he put up a total of 1.4 WAR over 2 years before inexplicably retiring. Ornelas has consistently climbed the system and produced at every stage. He intrigued me due to his power tool, and although it didn’t show up in the minors, he broke through to the big league club in 2023 and hit 5 homers in 12 games. He looks to be a key piece moving forward. Lawson has yet to break through to even AAA and his results have been pretty poor. I don’t know how much longer he’ll stay in the system, but he is not a large piece.
If Ornelas retires tomorrow, then SDP won this one too, but it looks like we have a left handed power bat for the foreseeable future. Winner: Pittsburgh.
Notable Drafted Players:
-1.07 JT Ginn - Ginn has climbed the minors steadily as well, he made his debut in June of 2022 and has become a solid middle of the rotation arm in his first full season. In 50 games, he holds a 4.08 ERA with a respectable 6.9 K/9.
-LAD: Keone Kela
-PIT: Dennis Santana + Yadier Alvarez
Justification/Results: Kela wasn’t long for the Pirates roster. This trade was done at the deadline so that he could reestablish some semblance of trade value. In return, the Pirates received two pitchers that were younger and lower cost, but seemed like they needed a change of scenery. Kela went on to win NL Reliever of the year on the way to a 2020 MLB championship with the Dodgers. Santana, turned reliever, was productive for parts of all 3 seasons in Pittsburgh garnering 3.5 WAR to this point. Alvarez has done similarly well and has accumulated 2.6 WAR. Based on WAR, the Pirates got more value in the trade (6.1 vs 1.0), but LAD won a World Series… so push?
-TBR: Josh Bell
-PIT: Brendan McKay + Josh Lowe + Eduardo Rodriguez
Justification/Results: Here’s the big move, right? It’s hard to get a reasonable package for Bell for a couple of reasons, but the main reason is that it’s hard to hit his value with true centerpiece prospects vs a quantity of prospects. I have been eyeing up McKay as the centerpiece for a Bell trade all winter and in this sim, I was able to make it happen. He’s a LH power pitcher that also carries a big stick. In fact, he’s graded out as a hitter by Fangraphs, as well. I don’t think the Pirates would use a two-way player, BUT I like that his bat is utilized in the NL. Josh Lowe is a former 1st round pick that has lost his shine. Change of scenery? And Eduardo Rodriguez is my sleeper ‘throw in’. I’ve been dabbling in looking at prospects with low K%, high BB%, low sStr% and decent pop in their bat. Rodriguez fits that mold, but he’s in A ball (In real life), but I took a stab as he was just a throw in here.
Bell was a superstar in TB, as you may expect. He put up 14.1 WAR in his 2.5 years in TB and culminated in a season with 49 homers and a .285 average in 2022. He signed a 6/$167M deal with Houston in 2023 and he immediately put up a 7.0 WAR season.
Lowe is currently sputtering in Bradenton, Rodriguez is up to Indy, but hasn’t shown signs that he’s ready for the next step just yet, and McKay has put up 8.9 WAR in 3 seasons in Pittsburgh. He truly broke out in 2023 with a 5.0 WAR performance where he fanned 179 over 190.1 innings with a 3.07 ERA. He looks to be an ace moving forward. I will say, however, that TBR won this trade.
2020 Record: 72-90 5th place2021 Acquisitions:
-ARI: Pablo Reyes
-PIT: Pavin Smith, 1B
Justification/Results: In all honesty, I needed a 40-man spot, so I flipped Reyes to any taker that wanted him. However, I mentioned to you before about what intrigued me about Eduardo Rodriguez? A guy that walks, doesn’t strike out, and hits for some power? Smith doesn’t have the power, but he has an interesting profile for a 1B. He plays good defense, doesn’t strikeout and gets on base. So he was worth the flyer.
Well, Reyes played a total of 15 games for Arizona and provided little impact. Smith, however, is my current starting first baseman, and has accrued 7.5 WAR in his time in Pittsburgh. I have a top prospect banging down the door, but Smith has a tight grip on the first base spot!
Easily a win for Pittsburgh.
-BAL: Clay Holmes
-PIT: Kyle Stowers
Justification/Results: Similar to the Reyes trade, Holmes was out of options so I shipped him to Baltimore who offered Kyle Stowers. Stowers, the 71st pick in 2019, wouldn’t seem like an option here, but Baltimore offered and I obliged. Since the trade, Holmes has account for -0.5 WAR in Baltimore, whereas Stowers burst on to the scene in 2023 with a 3.4 WAR performance. Easily a winner here.
-HOU: Jameson Taillon
-PIT: Josh James + Joe Perez
Justification/Results: Taillon, in game, was dominant. However, I didn’t believe that he could realistically get back to that level after 2 TJ surgeries. I’m not trying to be pessimistic, rather realistic. So I made a middling trade to simulate what kind of return I expect in a real life trade. In game, Taillon dominated for HOU and accumulated over 6 WAR in 2.5 years. James was a total disappointment in Pittsburgh and Perez is trying to find his way in AAA. Easy win for Houston. If you’re astute, you’ll note that Pittsburgh’s Texas stars Taillon/Bell are reunited in Houston in 2023.
2021 Record: 86-76 3rd in NL Central2022 Acquisitions:
-LAD: Cole Tucker + Prospect
-PIT: Connor Wong, CA
Justification/Results: I didn’t mention one major random addition to this sim until now. OOTP produces 2-4 international prospects each offseason. Typically, they’re either trash or so good that they require oodles of money to sign them. However, in the 2020 offseason a Haitian-born shortstop named Frederic Godard became available and in my price range. So I signed him to a 4-yr deal for just under $12M. It was a steal and made Tucker expendable. Also, remember when I said Varsho was not producing? I needed to shore up that position if I was going to have any hopes of building on 2021’s success.
Tucker was about a 1.0 WAR player in Pittsburgh, after leaving he produced 0.3 and 0.8 WAR in LA. Wong, on the other hand, became an instant sensation and hit .262/.315/.451 with 18 homers and 3.6 WAR in his first full season in Pittsburgh in 2023. Winner: Pittsburgh.
-CLE: Will Craig
-PIT: Tyler Freeman, 2B + Junior Sanquintin
I couldn’t get anything to work this year. The team absolutely nosedived from their 86-win season and sputtered to the 3rd worst record in baseball. So I decided to sell high on Craig. Remember, I have Pavin Smith tearing it up in AAA, so this move was more palatable. In return, Freeman was one of Cleveland’s top prospects and Sanquintin a prospect that my scout valued much higher than theirs did.
Freeman produced 3.3 WAR at AAA in 2022 forcing his way in to our plans in 2023. His rookie season produced 4.3 WAR alone based off of a .272/.341/.420 slash line, 7 homers, and 27 stolen bases. Sanquintin impressed in A+ and got the call to AA where he was strong. He keeps moving up the ladder. Craig has produced just 0.3 WAR in 149 games in Cleveland. This was another win for Pittsburgh.
2022 Record: 66-96 5th in the NL CentralAs you can see, with aspirations high, the team completely flopped. The goal was to make the playoffs in 2022 after a strong showing in the 2021 season. Pittsburgh was at a crossroads. They could look to win now by adding a few key FAs and push one more time with this core, or look to prop the contention window open by making a few bold moves. We chose the latter.
-BOS: Bryan Reynolds
-PIT: Darwinizon Hernandez + Chandler Champlain , SP + Eduardo Lopez, RF
Justification/Results: As I mentioned, we had to get bold this offseason. Reynolds still had 3 years of control, but he was getting expensive and I had ample talent on the farm ready to go. It’s at this point that I would like to mention that Juan Pie has been growing into a premier talent. He, specifically, is the reason that I was willing to be this bold. But Oneil Cruz, Swaggerty, Ornelas, and others all gave me the risk mitigation that I was comfortable moving the franchise piece. In return, Darwinizon Hernandez who had put up back-to-back 3.0 WAR seasons in Boston as a SP and just signed a team-friendly 5/$36.5M deal. Along with the centerpiece, Chandler Champlain a top pitching prospect and Lopez, a bat-first outfielder.
Hernandez put up a 5.1 WAR season in 2023 and coupled with 2 more years of service than I had Reynolds (3.8 WAR in 2023), I feel strongly about this deal. Reynolds signed an extension in Boston for 5/$103M, but he has an opt out after 2024. And that’s a deal I could never do. I’m taking the W for this one. One added bonus, moving Reynolds off the books allowed me to offer Juan Pie a 8y$35M deal before he set foot into PNC park. This was an absolute steal of a deal (year 7+8 are team options) that allowed me to call up Pie on opening day. The result? The rookie slashed .275/.322/.473 with 22 homers and 33 steals.
-COL: Kevin Newman
-PIT: Dinelson Lamet + Pat Winkel, CA + Diego Blanco, SP
Justification/Results: Colorado had traded Brendan Rogers for Lamet a season ago and then signed him to an extension of 5/$59M. He played poorly at Coors for one season and they soured on him. I stepped in with an offer of Newman and they jumped at the chance. I added two pieces that both look extremely promising at the lower end of the minors. Lamet was bumped from the starting rotation because there were just too many cooks. He ended up being an absolutely elite closer posting a 1.8 WAR season with 31 saves and 106 Ks in 71.1 innings in 2023.
Newman had a monster year for the Rockies where he posted a .299/.358/.451 slash that resulted in 4.3 WAR. Colorado has him for one more year (he currently has a torn labrum, out 8 months) whereas Pittsburgh controls Lamet for 3 more years and has rookie Tyler Freeman’s production at 2B that matches that of Newman. Winner: Pittsburgh.
-CWS: LHP Prospect
-PIT: Corey Knebel
Justification/Results: The team really had no weaknesses at the deadline other than Josh James performing poorly. I went out and obtained the top reliever on the market for a prospect that wasn’t in my future plans.
2023 Record: 93-69 1st Place2023 Playoff Roster
-RF Oneil Cruz*
-CF Juan Pie*
-LF Kyle Stowers
-SS Frederic Godard
-3B Ke’Bryan Hayes*
-2B Kevin Freeman
-1B Pavin Smith
-CA Conner Wong
-BN Buster Posey
-BN Michael Toglia
-BN Rodolfo Castro*
-BN Domingo Santana
-SP Joe Musgrove*
-SP Mitch Keller*
-SP JT Ginn^
-SP Darwinizon Hernandez
-SP Brendan McKay
-RP Corey Knebel
-RP DeMarcus Evans
-RP Blake Weiman
-RP John McMillon
-RP Dennis Santana
-RP Yadier Alvarez
-CL Dinelson Lamet
Conclusion: I’ve GMNH’d this thing by doing about 9,000 simulations, but this one is/was the most fun. It’s exciting to see lower level minors players turn into stars. The glut of OF talent acquired by both GMNH (Pie, Cruz, Gavilan, Swaggerty, Sanchez) and by GMBC (Stowers, Orneals) allowed me to trade Reynolds for a major payoff. There is a lot of churn on this roster, as noted by my asterisks and carrots. There are only 6 players on the 2023 playoff roster that are in the 2020 Pirates system as it stands today, and only one drafted player reached the team by 2023. There is a lot of work to be done to get to the playoffs and a rebuild is a scary thought for a team devoid of playoff baseball for 5 years, but there is hope that a division title is on the horizon… all Pittsburgh has to do is call me!